A Perspective On the Collapse of the Soviet System

• Washington, D.C.
• November 14, 1990

Excerpt from the Ernst Sturc Memorial Lecture Let us now see how the boom/bust model can be applied to the rise and fall of the Soviet system. The initial bias was a fixed one—the Marxist dogma—and there was a mutually self-reinforcing relationship between the rigidity of the dogma and the rigidity of prevailing conditions.

Gorbachev’s Reform Plan Is a Bust

• The New York Times
• October 19, 1990

Mikhail Gorbachev’s new economic reform program is destined to fail. At the crucial moment, he flinched; it is not wholly clear why. For the moment, a historic opportunity to reform the economy, with far-reaching renovation of Soviet society, has been lost.

Can the Soviet Economy Be Saved?

• The Wall Street Journal
• December 7, 1989

Just one year ago, I organized an international task force, under the authority of Prime Minister Nikolai Ryzhkov, to study the possibility of establishing an “open sector” within the Soviet economy. The idea was to create the embryo of a market economy within the body of a centrally planned economy.

How to Help Poland

• The Washington Post
• July 7, 1989

When the heads of state meet in Paris later this month, they will have Poland on the agenda. It will be one item out of many, and there is a danger that they will miss an opportunity that comes along only once in a great while.

Incredible Shrinking Superpowers

• Newsday
• July 2, 1989

There are two main objections that have been raised in the United States against actively supporting Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev. One is that Gorbachev may not last. If we go too far in dismantling our defenses, we may find ourselves confronting a different regime that has only one card left to play: military aggression.

The Gorbachev Prospect

• The New York Review of Books
• June 1, 1989

­ I became closely involved in the Soviet Union early in 1987 after Gorbachev summoned Sakharov to return to Moscow to “resume his patriotic work.” After extensive negotiations with Soviet officials, I set up a foundation called “Cultural Initiative” for the expressed purpose of helping the Soviet Union to evolve into a more open society.

Joint Ventures: A Way to Make Perestroika Work

• Financial Times
• June 15, 1988

The internal transformation under way in the Soviet Union is potentially the most promising historical development since the end of the Second World War. The war brought about the demise of Nazism; the current changes could mean the end of Stalinism in the Soviet Union.

After Black Monday

• Foreign Policy
• March 16, 1988

The stock market crash of 1987 was an event of historical significance for the world economy. The crashes of 1893, 1907, and 1929 were comparable, but the 1929 plunge is the most widely known and in many ways the most relevant.

Brady Commission Should’ve Stressed Market Stability

• The Wall Street Journal
• January 14, 1988

The Brady Commission report grave a coherent, factual account of the fateful week from Oct. 14 to Oct. 20, but it stopped short of drawing the appropriate theoretical conclusions. Events have demonstrated that financial markets are inherently unstable. Moreover, the instability is cumulative: The longer markets function without supervision explicitly aimed at maintaining stability, the greater the danger of an accident like Oct.

This Time the Turning Point Has Been Reached

• Financial Times
• October 14, 1987

The Japanese stock market is following a classic boom/bust pattern. Many of the major players know that the boom is unsustainable, yet they feel they must continue playing. A turning point is imminent. At the beginning of 1986, the boom started to falter because of the rising value of the yen.